[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 100605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA TO 5N20W 5N40W TO 4N44W...INTO EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 2N TO 8N TO THE EAST OF 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE COMPARATIVELY SHALLOW COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN
FLORIDA...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG
THE MEXICO COAST THAT IS NEAR 23N97W. THE FRONT CONTINUES FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N97W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W 27N82W 19N96W. A THIN LINE OF CLOUDS
THAT IS QUITE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MARKS THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 64W/65W FROM 15N TO 21N.
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE COMPARATIVELY THE MOST PROMINENT
FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W...MOSTLY IN THE WATERS AROUND
PUERTO RICO AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH ALSO SHOWS UP
IN ASCAT-HIGH RESOLUTION DATA FROM 10/0200 UTC. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS FLAT. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW FROM JAMAICA/HISPANIOLA
AND PUERTO RICO SOUTHWARD TO THE EAST OF 78W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF
15N TO THE WEST OF 80W IS LARGELY CYCLONIC. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA...MEANING THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N34W TO 27N35W TO 21N38W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO
30N44W. A TROUGH...LIKELY THE REMNANT OF AN EARLIER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...IS ALONG 33N32W 30N35W 27N40W 26N44W. SHOWERS ARE
TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH FROM 30N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 26W AND 30W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST
OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 16N BETWEEN 10W AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA.

$$
MT





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