[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 3N26W 3N45W 2N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM
23W-30W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 27W-30W AND FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 38W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR PANAMA
CITY FLORIDA EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N92W TO A 1006 MB LOW OFF THE
MEXICAN COAST NEAR 24N97W CONTINUING S ALONG 22N96W TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO BETWEEN TUXPAN AND VERACRUZ NEAR 21N07W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 89W
WITH A WELL DEFINED ROPE CLOUD AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTING THIS FRONT IS
MOVING NE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND E CANADA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED
OVER S MEXICO AND EXTENDS OVER THE GULF ALONG 20N94W TO S FLORIDA. A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES IS BEGINNING TO MOVE S
INTO THE NW GULF. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND TO SOUTH OF TAMPICO MEXICO THU WITH THE WESTERN PORTION
STALLING WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION WILL CONTINUE SE OVER S FLORIDA
BY LATE THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC
GIVING THE ENTIRE BASIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 16N TO OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES E OF 80W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS DRAWING MOISTURE N ACROSS PANAMA INTO
THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 77W-83W. SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE THROUGH 32N78W ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR
29N56W DOMINATES MUCH OF THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS OVER THE N/CENTRAL
ATLC WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST N OF THE REGION. A SURFACE
TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N37W EXTENDING SW TO 27N45W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 29N36W TO BEYOND 32N32W.
THUS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING.

$$
WALLACE





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