[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA TO 5N20W 5N40W TO 6N52W TO 5N57W IN
NORTHWESTERN SURINAME. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
5N TO 6N BETWEEN 35W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 6W AND 40W...AND TO THE SOUTH
OF 8N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH REACHES SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 27N98W.
SOME UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...MOSTLY FROM THE LOWER-TO-MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST TO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EVERYWHERE
ELSE. SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA IN
ANTICIPATION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS POSSIBLY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA. BROAD CYCLONIC SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
IS UNDERNEATH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N...EVENTUALLY ENTERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. NO CLUSTERS OF
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 62W...TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W...
FROM JAMAICA NEAR 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 67W AND 77W. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE WEAK.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 30N43W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N43W TO 28N57W TO 30N67W
TO 29N71W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 27N52W 28N60W 28N66W 30N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
APPROACHING THE AREA OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW PASSING
THROUGH 34N35W TO 30N41W TO 28N56W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE WEST OF THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS.
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N12W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 24N19W TO 17N21W TO 14N27W
TO 15N40W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N
BETWEEN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AND SENEGAL.

$$
MT



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