[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 082358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N27W 4N39W 2N50W. CLUSTERS OF
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W
TO 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 2100 UTC...THE GULF WATERS ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR THIS EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TEXAS TO OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE DISSIPATING OVER S ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. A LARGE
UPPER LOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W
ATLC EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GIVING THE GULF
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED N OF 29N ACROSS
THE N GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE ATLC GIVING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND EASTERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS SW OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE CARIBBEAN IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN BEGINNING THU. IN SPITE OF THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF
15N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 68W-75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE N CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 15N-20N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N35W EXTENDING W
ACROSS THE ATLC TO 28N49W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 27N57W
29N68W 28N73W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR JACKSONVILLE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS WELL N OF THE REGION. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE THAT CROSSES THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM OVER CENTRAL
CUBA E TO 26N28W. THIS IS GIVING THE S ATLC AND MOST OF THE TROPICAL
ATLC STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS S TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH OVER S SPAIN AND A WEAK 1020 MB
HIGH NEAR 27N37W.

$$
WALLACE




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