[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA TO 5N20W 5N40W TO 6N52W TO 5N57W IN
NORTHWESTERN SURINAME. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO
6N BETWEEN 35W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 9W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO
THE WATERS NEAR 27N91W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
COASTAL LOUISIANA TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. SOME UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
LOWER-TO-MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. A LINE OF LOW CLOUDS HAS FORMED
FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE COMPARATIVELY COLDEST AIR
IS RIGHT NOW IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
EVERYWHERE ELSE. SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA IN ANTICIPATION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS POSSIBLY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA. BROAD CYCLONIC SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
IS UNDERNEATH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N...EVENTUALLY ENTERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. NO CLUSTERS OF
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 62W...TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W...
FROM 16N TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W AND 73W...FROM JAMAICA
NEAR 17N TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE WEAK.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 29N40W 28N52W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N52W TO 28N60W TO 30N70W. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N43W 27N50W 28N60W
30N67W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE AREA OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW PASSING THROUGH 33N30W TO 28N40W TO 27N50W
AND 27N56W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE WEST OF THE
FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS. A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 30N10W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 22N18W NEAR
THE MOROCCO COAST...TO 17N22W NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
TO 15N33W TO 15N40W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N BETWEEN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AND SENEGAL.

$$
MT





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