[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N27W 4N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 10W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM CAPE CANAVERAL INTO THE NE GULF NEAR 29N83W
THEN WESTWARD TO A 1001 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N91W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS S-SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N93W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR
20N96W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N
W OF 83W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY FALLS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT AREA OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BETWEEN A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS NEAR 33N101W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
HONDURAS TO EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE W ATLC. SE OF THE FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...SE GULF...AND YUCATAN PENINSULA...
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF UP TO GALE FORCE. OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
DEEPEN OVER THE SE CONUS AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW TRANSLATES
E-NE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE DEVELOPING AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING STRONG W-NW WINDS THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CENTRAL AMERICA AND MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 65W ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE W ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION BRINGING MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND FAIR
SKIES TO MUCH OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BEING USHERED IN ON FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE STRONGEST OF THESE TRADES ARE
LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA BETWEEN 71W-77W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 57W IN THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLC N OF 32N AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N62W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS W-SW TO 28N74W THEN
CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC LIES BENEATH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS COVERS THE AREA FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN
63W-73W. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 49W N OF 16N. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N50W TO 22N51W.
MOST OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 19N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 42W-48W AND IS LARGELY
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT E OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ALONG 49W. THIS SYSTEM IS QUICKLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE
AZORES NEAR 39N32W.

$$
HUFFMAN





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