[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N30W 4N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 13W-18W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 24W-27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1003 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 27N94W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N97W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 29N90W 28N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE LOW FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN
85W-91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WARM FRONT. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 200 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW WITH 11 FT
SEAS. ELSEWHERE...THE E PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND THE SE GULF HAS 10-15 KT S WINDS WITH FAIR WEATHER.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W TEXAS
NEAR 30N103W SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF AND PRODUCING
SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. THE W EDGE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W ALSO PRODUCING SW FLOW.
EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY E OF THE FRONT. ALSO
EXPECT 20 KT NW WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION W OF THE FRONT TO
INCLUDE THE NW GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR
7N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND
COSTA RICA S OF 11N AND W OF 80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 78W
PRODUCING WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N62W TO 29N72W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 31N50W 22N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 45W-50W. A 1029 MB HIGH
IS W OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N33W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N49W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
E OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N79W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA IN 24
HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT GALE FORCE SW WINDS TO START IN
30 HOURS E OF THIS FRONT...N OF 29N W OF 74W.

$$
FORMOSA





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