[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

9N13W 5N30W 5N40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N53W.
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH OF 10N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W...
ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STILL IS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
31N74W TO 29N78W AND ALONG 28N BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF
FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA GULF OF MEXICO COAST. THE FRONT CONTINUES
AS STATIONARY FROM 28N83W TO 26N90W...TO A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N96W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE
1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 100W IN MEXICO SUPPORTS THE
STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHWARD. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...FIRST WITHIN 180 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOW CENTER...AND THEN TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST
OF THE FRONT AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO COVER THE AREA...
BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION. SURFACE EASTERLY WINDS RANGING
FROM 10 KT TO 20 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BASIN...ROUGHLY FROM 70W TO 83W BETWEEN 10N AND 15N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 60W...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 51W/52W FROM 25N TO 32N IS MOVING TOWARD
A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH
HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W
TO 30N51W TO 23N53W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE WESTERN SAHARA TO 21N28W TO 11N40W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH.

$$
FG/MT




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