[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N30W 4N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 8W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND INTO THE NE GULF NEAR 29N83W W-SW ALONG 27N90W TO A 1009 MB LOW
NEAR 26N96W THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG 20N95W AND INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS VERY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAINLY COVERING THE GULF W OF 93W AND N OF 24N BETWEEN
85W-93W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY FALLS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
AREA OVER THE NW GULF BETWEEN A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER N/CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 31N107W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND SE GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA
ALONG 82W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W ATLC. TO THE SE OF THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 83W-90W. OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE NW GULF WATERS AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES SWEEPING EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
TEXAS. THIS DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS N OF 27N E OF 92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 70W ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM COSTA
RICA ALONG 82W TO WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION BRINGING MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND FAIR SKIES TO MUCH
OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING USHERED IN
ON FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST OF THESE TRADES ARE LOCATED OFF THE COAST
OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 72W IN THE W ATLC N OF 32N
AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N78W AND EXTENDS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR JACKSONVILLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE REMAINING MAINLY N OF 32N
AND WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC WATERS ARE CONTROLLED BY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
30N60W TO THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA NEAR 22N77W. FARTHER EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG
53N N OF 20N. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N49W ALONG 30N51W TO 23N52W.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS FROM 22N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 46W-53W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N26W.

$$
HUFFMAN





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