[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N30W 3N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 17W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
FLORIDA FROM SAINT AUGUSTINE TO A 998 MB LOW CENTERED OVER SE
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S-SW FROM THE LOW ALONG
25N92W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N97W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY
AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF N OF 25N BETWEEN 83W-94W AND WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 25N. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FALLS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT AREA OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
BETWEEN A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH TEXAS NEAR
32N98W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND W
ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH HISPANIOLA TO
30N70W IN THE W ATLC. SE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...SE GULF...AND YUCATAN PENINSULA...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF UP TO
GALE FORCE OCCURRING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF
AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N E OF 86W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN OVER THE SE CONUS
AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW TRANSLATES E-NE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY BRINGING STRONG W-NW WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CENTRAL AMERICA AND MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW
CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE W ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND LACK OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WHICH ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
BRINGING MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND FAIR SKIES TO MUCH OF THE
BASIN. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING USHERED IN ON
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER
ANTILLES. ALSO...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF
WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA SW OF A LINE
FROM 12N84W TO 9N80W. THE STRONGEST TRADEWINDS ARE LOCATED OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA BETWEEN 71W-77W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 52W IN THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLC N OF 30N AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N58W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 29N65W THEN CONTINUES
AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC LIES BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF SHALLOW
LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS COVERS THE AREA FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 65W-73W.
FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS ALONG 47W N OF 20N. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ANALYZED FROM 23N53W TO BEYOND 32N46W. MOST
OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 19N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 42W-48W AND IS LARGELY DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS ALONG 47W. THIS SYSTEM IS QUICKLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
AZORES NEAR 38N28W.

$$
HUFFMAN





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