[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 1N15W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 19W THEN ALONG 3S26W 2S33W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S39W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAKENING FRONT IN THE SE GULF CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS SOUTH OF 26N. AS OF 0900 UTC...THE STATIONARY FRONT
STRETCHED FROM THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N81W ALONG 24N85W TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER
RADAR REVEAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 80 NM OF THE BOUNDARY.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE LATER TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
IS TRANQUIL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
A MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
EXPECT THE HIGH TO DRIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON SUNDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SFC TROUGH ALONG 61W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 14N. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS SLOWLY
WESTWARD. PATCHY CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
UNDER ABUNDANT MID-UPPER DRY AIR. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SLY WINDS IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKENING FRONT IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
DOMINATE THE W ATLC. AS OF 0900 UTC...THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N70W AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM E OF
THE FRONT S OF 27N. SW WINDS 20-25 KT ARE OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD
BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE LATE SUN. A DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N40W. A SFC TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 28N40W TO 24N43W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 160NM OF THE TROUGH. A NARROW RIDGE
IS PRODUCING TRANQUIL WEATHER BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. IN THE
TROPICS...UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ.

$$
WADDINGTON






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