[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040503
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0430 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N15W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 23W THEN ALONG 2S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 5S38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 27W AND THE COAST OF BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MEANDER IN THE SE GULF THIS
MORNING. AS OF 0300 UTC...THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ENTERING THE GULF NEAR MARCO ISLAND AND CONTINUING TO
NEAR 25N84W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 23N88W TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER
RADAR REVEAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHING 40 NM OF THE FRONT. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BEFORE
BECOMING DIFFUSE LATE SAT. A MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON SUNDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ABUNDANT MID-UPPER DRY AIR BLANKETS THE CARIBBEAN. UPPER
CONFLUENCE BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS
CREATING A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE ONLY NOTABLE AREA OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 61W. SFC
STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING SHOWERS WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE ISLANDS. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED
IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...SLY
WINDS 20-25 KT HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT IN THE SE
GULF.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE W ATLC. AS OF 0300 UTC...THE COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N74W AND CONTINUES ALONG
28N77W AND CROSSES FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 40 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 28N...AND WITHIN 80 NM N OF 28N.
SW WINDS 20-25 KT ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE
LATE SUN. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC. THE SFC LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N42W. A SFC
TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
ALONG 25N45W TO NEAR 22N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED
ALONG THE TROUGH. TRANQUIL WEATHER IS OBSERVED BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS. IN THE TROPICS...UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
WADDINGTON





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