[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT APR 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
20W THEN ALONG 2S25W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 4W-10W...AND FROM 1S-4S BETWEEN
21W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2S BETWEEN
31W-41W...AND FROM 4N-2S BETWEEN 43W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA
TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 26N80W 25N85W. A WEAK WARM
FRONT CONTINUES W TO THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 25N90W 23N92W. THE
FRONTS ARE DELINEATED BY BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND WIND
SHIFTS. THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION AND THE FRONTS ARE WEAKENING.
THE N GULF N OF THE FRONTS HAS 10-15 KT E TO SE WINDS WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF
27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER THE S GULF S OF 27N.
EXPECT...THE TAIL END OF THE WARM FRONT TO BE OVER N FLORIDA IN
24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT A NEW COLD FRONT TO
BE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST IN 24 HOURS MOVING SE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
SMALL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 63W FROM
13N-19N MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN
61W-65W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAS FAIR WEATHER.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO BE S OF E HISPANIOLA IN 24 HOURS
WITH SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N66W TO S
FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
28N-29N BETWEEN 70W-71W...AND FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 65W-68W. A
1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N40W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 25N42W 21N47W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1026 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 35N22W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N40W. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 30W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 9N25W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W
FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO BE ALONG 32N60W IN 24 HOURS
WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO DRIFT E IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA







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