[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 6N10W ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 18W...TO 3S30W TO 7S39W. STRONG SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
3N12W TO 2N17W TO 1S22W...AND FROM 2N TO THE BRAZIL COAST
BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 33W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS AROUND THE TROUGH THAT IS
SUPPORTING THIS COLD FRONT IS REALLY MOSTLY NORTH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CONFINED FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA ACROSS FLORIDA BEYOND
30N80W. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
TO 24N90W TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 74W SOUTH OF 32N. THE AREA
OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA/THE BAHAMAS/CUBA/HISPANIOLA IS COVERED
BY THIS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.


THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE GREATER
ANTILLES TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW STARTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...MOVING BEYOND 15N60W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA.
A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO IS EVIDENT AT THIS TIME.
BROAD LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS IN NORTHERN BELIZE.


THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE 74W RIDGE COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN UNTIL 55W. THE LARGE SCALE FLOW STARTS TO
TURN CYCLONIC AROUND 55W...WITH A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP
LAYER TROUGH. A LOW LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 21N69W
TO 15N81W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT...FROM A 1014 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N41W TO 26N44W TO 21N53W. DEEP LAYER
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 30W
AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N
BETWEEN 32W AND 43W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N20W TO TO 26N28W TO 20N31W TO 14N37W.

$$
MT



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