[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 18W...TO 3S30W TO 5S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 13W-17W...AND FROM 2N-2S
BETWEEN 17W-23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
EQ-2S BETWEEN 23W-29W...AND FROM 3S-5S BETWEEN 33W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 30N80W TO 21N90W MOVING SE. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER FLORIDA FROM
27N-29N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO AWAY FROM THE FRONT. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
BEHIND THE FRONT. A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT OVER THE SE GULF IS
PRODUCING 20-25 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS S OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF. EXPECT...THE TAIL END
OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT 10-15 KT SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW TO
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IN 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
STRONG SE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT. A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 60W FROM 14N-19N MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
13N-19N BETWEEN 57W-62W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH
TO BE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OFF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND N FLORIDA ALONG
32N79W 29N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.
A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N43W.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 27N42W 21N50W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1027 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 34N21W. AN AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 15N E OF
30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF
20N BETWEEN 55W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N27W. A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. ZONAL
FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO BE ALONG 32N50W IN 24 HOURS WITH
SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE LOW AND FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TO DRIFT TO 28N41W IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA






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