[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC...AND METEOSAT-8 SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 6N10W ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 17W...TO 3S30W TO 7N39W. STRONG SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A LINE SOUTH OF 4N11W 2N21W.
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 4N
BETWEEN 34W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS AROUND THE TROUGH THAT IS
SUPPORTING THIS COLD FRONT IS REALLY MOSTLY NORTH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CONFINED TO WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 30N83W. THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 25N92W TO THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 21N97W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 77W/78W SOUTH
OF 30N. THE AREA OF THE BAHAMAS/CUBA/SOUTH FLORIDA IS COVERED
BY THIS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE GREATER
ANTILLES TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW STARTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...MOVING BEYOND 14N60W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA.
A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO IS EVIDENT AT THIS TIME.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE 77W/78W RIDGE
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN UNTIL 55W. THE LARGE SCALE FLOW
STARTS TO TURN CYCLONIC AROUND 55W...WITH A CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH. A LOW LEVEL RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N61W TO 22N69W TO JAMAICA. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 32N42W
27N44W CURVING TO 22N52W. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 39W AND 50W. A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N21W TO
TO 25N30W TO 7N30W.

$$
MT



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