[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N10W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
14W CONTINUING ALONG 1S20W 2S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S39W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER LIBERIA FROM
4N-9N BETWEEN 7W-11W. ALSO...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE S OF 3N BETWEEN 31W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING
ACROSS SRN ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE GULF SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA AND EXTENDS SW
ALONG 25N94W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR TAMPICO. MOSAIC DOPPLER
RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
TSTMS ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITHIN
60 NM. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL GULF N OF
26N E OF THE FRONT TO 86W UNDER 20-25 KT SLY SURFACE WIND FLOW.
NW OF THE COLD FRONT...NLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW GULF...TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA COASTS. ALSO OF NOTE...HAZE IS OBSERVED
RESTRICTING VISIBILITY ALONG THE SRN MEXICO COAST AND WRN
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SMOKE STREAMING N-NE ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL
GULF AND ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO WILDFIRES OVER SRN MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH FRESH EASTERLY
TRADES OBSERVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. ABUNDANT DRY AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS PREVENTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION BEYOND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNDER MOSTLY CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT E OF 75W WHILE SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UP TO 25 KTS
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WRN CUBA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE FAR W ATLC AND
ORIGINATES FROM A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N73W. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS ANALYZED WWD TO THE GEORGIA COAST AND IS GENERATING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THE SE CONUS
INCLUDING THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN GEORGIA AND NRN
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND INTO THE W ATLC WATERS N OF
30N AND REMAIN E OF 67W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BE ABSORBED BY A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE ERN CONUS AND
PROVIDE INCREASED SLY WINDS OF UP TO 30 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED
NEAR 33N44W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED
NEAR 32N45W AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ALONG
30N43W 25N48W 22N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE BOUNDARY. TO THE E...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ERN ATLC WITH A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 33N20W. ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH...NE TO
ELY SURFACE FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS OBSERVED. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC...DIVERGENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AN
E-W AXIS ALONG 8N IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN


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