[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 012347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 21W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 5S36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 6W-15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS ACROSS THE ERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND ENTERS THE GULF NEAR APALACHICOLA BAY EXTENDING SW
ALONG 27N90W 25N93W 23N93W. THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRANSITION TO A
WARM FRONT AND MOVE NWD ALIGNING ITSELF ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST
BY EARLY THURSDAY. CURRENTLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS NRN FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF
WATERS. POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW OF UP TO 20 KT IS ACROSS THE SE GULF AND ERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING. AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...EXPECT THE NEXT COLD
FRONT TO ENTER THE FAR NW GULF BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH FRESH EASTERLY
TRADES OBSERVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. ABUNDANT DRY AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS PREVENTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION BEYOND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND HISPANIOLA.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNDER
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT E OF 75W WHILE SELY WINDS WILL REMAIN
BRISK UP TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE FAR W ATLC AND
ORIGINATES FROM A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N78W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED SW TO A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED OVER SAVANNAH
GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS NRN FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC WATERS N OF 28N AND REMAINING
E OF 72W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE W ATLC WATERS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WHILE PROVIDING
INCREASED SLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N WITH AXIS ALONG 50W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N45W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 29N50W 25N60W TO 26N68W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. TO THE
EAST...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE S/CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC WITH A
1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N19W. ON THE SRN PERIPHERY
OF THIS HIGH...NE TO ELY SURFACE FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS OBSERVED.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...DIVERGENCE AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WITH AN E-W AXIS ALONG 7N IS SUPPORTING THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ E OF 15W.

$$
HUFFMAN





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