[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 15W INTO
NE BRAZIL NEAR 5S37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-3N
BETWEEN 15W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 0300 UTC WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO 26N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT. A 110-120 KT
JETSTREAM IS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THEN NW GULF TO
SOUTHERN ALABAMA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE
AIR IS S OF 25N WITH FAIR SKIES ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF UP TO 20 KT IS ACROSS THE SE GULF AND
ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH FRESH EASTERLY TRADES
OBSERVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA SW TO NICARAGUA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS
PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION BEYOND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW ATLC FROM 32N72W TO CENTRAL
CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH
THE RIDGE N OF 27N. OVERCAST LOW TOP CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 32N50W TO 19N60W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N45W TO 24N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO 60W.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA E OF THE UPPER
TOUGH AND FRONT.

$$
DGS


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