[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
21W...TO 4S30W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 8S39W. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO AFRICA
BETWEEN 3W AND 10W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
BETWEEN 40W AND 45W...AND OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN
50W AND 57W TO THE NORTH OF FRENCH GUIANA/SURINAME/GUYANA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND
18W...AND SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 28W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
TO 25N94W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N97W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 20N97W TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS RIGHT OFF THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 27N68W TO
29N77W TO THE LOW CENTER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N83W AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 28N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF FLORIDA
AND 80W IN BETWEEN THE CENTRAL U.S.A. TROUGH AND THE STILL-
STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER TROUGH. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 73W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN
COASTAL COLOMBIA...ACROSS LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA...ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A WEAK
MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN EASTERN NICARAGUA.
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 69W IN SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 17N70W 22N66W...INCLUDING THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SPREADS CYCLONIC FLOW
TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 40W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 27N64W TO 27N68W.
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N68W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 73W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
30N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES
AROUND A RIDGE...FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N20W
TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N38W...TO A 1020 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N52W...TO 24N65W TO THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 25N77W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH MOROCCO TO THE WESTERN SAHARA TO 19N21W.

$$
MT


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