[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281031
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS. ANY CONVECTION IS
WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG ALONG 37W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR
10 KT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS. NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 8N61W TO 21N63W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL
DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE IS PASSING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY N OF 14N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 78W/79W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR
15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
AND AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N3W 1N12W 6N25W 3N32W 5N40W 4N53W
AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N74W ACROSS COSTA RICA/
NICARAGUA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA
E OF 10W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 2N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-20W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 17W-28W AND WITHIN 60
NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 28W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF W OF 91W ANCHORED ALONG THE
COAST OF SW MEXICO. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N90W
WITH A NARROW UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING S
TO THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC OVER THE E GULF E OF 85W. THESE ARE RELATIVELY BENIGN
FEATURES AS THE ENTIRE GULF IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
THE N GULF FROM THE W ATLC TO LOUISIANA WITH MODERATE EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS. THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN REMAINS THE SE GULF
WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 26N E OF
87W TO THE FLORIDA COAST...OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W ATLC AND FAR NW
CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RATHER CLEAR
AGAIN THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH A SHEAR
AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS W CUBA TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE ISLE OF YOUTH GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N
FROM 76W TO THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN. THE SW UPPER FLOW ACROSS
THE S CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ARE PRODUCING A
BROAD AREA OF DENSE CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N W OF 71W TO OVER COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
CONTINUING TO GIVE THE ISLANDS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR W ATLC INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO
WITH A WELL DEFINED ELONGATED UPPER LOW NEAR 33N65W TO 26N68W
THEN A EXTENDING A SHEAR AXIS S OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 23N77W
ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N65W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA NEAR 21N78W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 25N W OF 70W INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 28N.
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BROADER UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NE TO BEYOND 32N51W. THE A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 23N61W TO 28N58W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN
57W-63W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW NEAR 31N33W SW INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC TO NEAR 13N48W WITH A SECOND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E
ATLC E OF 18W OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS AND WESTERN SAHARA AFRICA.
THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE N OF 15N
BRIDGING THE SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS
THE N GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N41W.
THE RESULT IS CALM WEATHER FOR THE ATLC E OF 55W.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net