[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280517
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED ALONG 20W/21W S OF 14N MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150
NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 2N-9N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG ALONG 36W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR
15 KT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS. ANY
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 8N58W TO 21N61W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL
DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE IS BETWEEN BARBADOS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE N PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS
NOW A SEPARATE FEATURE. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE THIS TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 77W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND
AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 7N22W 3N31W 2N43W EQ49W AND
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 11N74W ACROSS COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO THE SW COAST OF AFRICA E OF 6W
ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 6W-18W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N
BETWEEN 22W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF W OF 90W ANCHORED OVER SW
MEXICO. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N87W WITH A NARROW
UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING S TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
OVER THE E GULF E OF 84W. THESE ARE RELATIVELY BENIGN FEATURES
AS THE ENTIRE GULF IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY UPPER AIR. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE NE GULF
FROM THE W ATLC WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE ONLY
AREA OF CONCERN IS THE SE GULF WHERE THERE ARE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N E OF 85W TO THE FLORIDA
COAST...OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS
DUE TO THE FRONT IN THE W ATLC THAT IS RETREATING AS A WARM
FRONT TO OVER CUBA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
RATHER CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN
INDUCED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THIS UPPER
RIDGE AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO THAT EXTENDS
FROM W CUBA TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CUBA ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO 84W. THE SW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN IS
DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS
WELL AS AN ILL DEFINED 1006 MB SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ NEAR 11N82W IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF DENSE CLOUDINESS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N FROM OVER
COLOMBIA TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES GIVING THE ISLANDS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR W ATLC INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO
WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW NEAR 31N66W EXTENDING A SHEAR AXIS
S OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 25N70W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 22N78W. A
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO LIFT BACK N SLOWLY AS A
WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N64W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
23N75W DISSIPATING TO OVER CUBA NEAR 21N78W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 23N BETWEEN
70W AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BROADER
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS
NE TO BEYOND 32N50W. THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS BROKEN OFF AS A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 23N61W TO 28N57W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 57W-62W.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN
ELONGATED UPPER LOW NEAR 32N34W SW INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC TO
NEAR 13N48W WITH A SECOND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC E OF
20W OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS AND WESTERN SAHARA AFRICA. THE E AND
CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE N OF 15N BRIDGING
THE FRONT IN THE W  ATLC ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED
BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33N45W. THE RESULT IS CALM WEATHER FOR
THE ATLC E OF 55W.

$$
WALLACE




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