[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GFS MODEL MOISTURE FIELD GUIDANCE.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 3N-8N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 38W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT
BASED ON MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION FROM CIMSS. NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 9N64W TO 21N64W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL
DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA AND
MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THIS TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY N OF 17N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 80W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
LOCATED IN THE EPAC AND AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N15W 4N21W 3N26W 2N36W 2N39W
EQ51W AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 9N76W TO NICARAGUA INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO NEAR 8N INLAND OVER SW AFRICA
BETWEEN 2W-10W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N
BETWEEN 13W-16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
26W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF W OF 90W ANCHORED ALONG THE
COAST OF W CENTRAL MEXICO. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
24N88W WITH A NARROW UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL GULF
EXTENDING S TO THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. A SECOND
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC OVER THE E GULF E OF 85W. THESE ARE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
WEATHER PRODUCING
FEATURES AS THE ENTIRE GULF IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF FROM THE W ATLC
TO E TEXAS WITH MODERATE 10-15 KT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE
ONLY AREA OF CONCERN REMAINS IN THE SE GULF WHERE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 26N E OF 83W TO THE
FLORIDA COAST DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W ATLC. OTHERWISE
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH A SHEAR
AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO OVER HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. THE SW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING
UPPER LEVEL EPAC MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A WEAK 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COUPLED WITH
THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W ARE PRODUCING A
BROAD AREA OF DENSE CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N W OF 72W OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA...N COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND VIRGIN ISLANDS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND E HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE FAR
W ATLC WITH A WELL DEFINED ELONGATED UPPER LOW NEAR 33N64W TO
24N67W AND AN EXTENDING ASSOCIATED SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND E CUBA. THIS SUPPORTS A PAIR OF REMNANT SURFACE
TROUGHS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N66W TO NEAR 28N71W AND ACROSS
CROOKED ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON THE NORTHERN TROUGH ACROSS THE W
ATLC...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SOUTHERN TROUGH. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO 24N63W AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BROADER UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NE TO BEYOND 32N48W. BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN
ELONGATED UPPER LOW NEAR 33N30W SW INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC TO
NEAR 15N49W. THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE N OF 15N BRIDGING THE SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLC ACROSS THE N GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR
33N38W. THE RESULT IS CALM WEATHER FOR THE ATLC E OF 55W.

$$
HUFFMAN


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