[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
7N/8N ALONG THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 14N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W...AND
FR0M 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W.

A SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W SOUTH
OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING A SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
ON THE LATEST MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION FROM CIMSS.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W
SOUTH OF 17N INCLUDING MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA 10 KT.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W.

..THE ITCZ...
9N13W 3N24W 3N32W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 43W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 17W AND 18W...FROM 6N TO 8N
BETWEEN 18W AND 20W...AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF
OF MEXICO. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 20N108W...ACROSS
MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENTERS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA...AND IT COVERS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA EAST
OF 86W...FROM GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SOUTHEASTWARD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE FORMING NEAR
16N73W...SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 67W AND 76W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF EVERYTHING
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/
SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE EAST OF 82W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF 12N60W 13N70W 15N80W 21N86W IN CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BASE OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 35N60W TO 30N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH 32N57W TO
30N62W TO 29N72W CURRENTLY IS IN THE BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW OF THIS TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 26N80W 20N53W BEYOND
32N47W. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
29N68W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS SOUTH OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE 35N60W 30N56W
TROUGH...WEST OF 50W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N40W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N40W TO
21N42W TO 9N45W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NORTH OF 9N BETWEEN 27W AND 52W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 19N
TO 24N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W...AND FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 37W
AND 41W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 24N60W TO 25N45W TO
A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N33W.

$$
MT




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