[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 240601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS NEAR 7N/8N ALONG THE
WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
5N TO 11N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W.

A SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W
SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING A SMALL NORTHWARD
MOISTURE BULGE ON THE LATEST MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION FROM CIMSS.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W
SOUTH OF 17N INCLUDING MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA 10 KT.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W.

..THE ITCZ...
8N12W 2N22W 3N32W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 43W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 14W AND 19W.
THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS IN SOME OF THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 11W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 31W AND 34W...AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF
10N BETWEEN 36W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF
OF MEXICO. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 20N107W...ACROSS
MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENTERS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER...
FROM GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 28N/29N ALONG 87W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W TO
30N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND DISSIPATING FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD TO 29N84W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE FORMING NEAR
16N74W...SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 67W AND 76W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF EVERYTHING
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/
SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE EAST OF 82W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF 12N60W 13N70W 15N80W 21N86W IN CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BASE OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 35N61W TO 30N58W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 29N66W CURRENTLY IS IN THE BROAD MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OF THIS TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 26N80W
25N62W 22N54W BEYOND 32N47W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS SOUTH OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE 35N61W 30N58W TROUGH...
WEST OF 50W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N40W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N40W TO 21N42W
TO 9N45W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH
OF 9N BETWEEN 27W AND 52W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 24N
BETWEEN 30W AND 37W...AND FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 36W AND 43W.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 28N77W TO 25N56W TO 29N41W TO
A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N34W.

$$
MT

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