[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 13N MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE
MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT CLEARLY INDICATES A BULGE
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. LOW-LEVEL TURNING ALONG
WITH A WEAK INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS APPARENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS N OF 7N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. UPPER AIR
TIME-SECTION ANALYSIS FROM TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO INDICATE THAT THE
WAVE PASSED OVER THE ISLAND DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS. SFC OBS
ALONG THE SOUTHERNMOST WINDWARD ISLANDS DEPICT THE EXPECTED
NE-SE WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE AXIS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE IS MAINLY INLAND OVER VENEZUELA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W S OF 17N. THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE WAVE AXIS ENTERS THE NE CARIBBEAN OVER CENTRAL HONDURAS. THE
WAVE IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD. MID-LEVEL ROTATION IS
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER...THIS ROTATION HAS YET
TO REACH THE SURFACE. UPPER LEVEL NELY FLOW HAS SHEARED MOST OF
THE CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE IN THE E PACIFIC.

..THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N20W 3N29W ALONG THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 26W-41W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 17W-24W..AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 19W-22W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN THE AXIS AND THE NE COAST OF
BRAZIL W OF 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND ENTER THE NE GULF LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUN. WINDS IN THE FAR NE GULF WILL SHIFT N 15KT
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND W GULF IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE CARIBBEAN. WESTWARD MOVING LOW-TOPPED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS N OF 14N ARE EVIDENT ON SAN JUAN DOPPLER
RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. DIVERGENCE AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OVER JAMAICA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE CONVECTION
BETWEEN  EASTERN CUBA...HAITI...AND JAMAICA. A BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA S OF 12N
DUE TO LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE. SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS LIMITED IN THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS AROUND AN UPPER HIGH PRES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA...HAVE MOVED OFF THE SE CONUS AND
INTO THE W ATLC IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. AS OF 16Z...THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINED N OF
27N...HOWEVER IT IS RAPIDLY MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THE SFC
LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATER TONIGHT. FARTHER
EAST...A SFC TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDS
FROM 31N55W ALONG 28N62W TO 28N68W. A BAND OF MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH HAS SPAWNED AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 30W-37W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
IS RATHER TRANQUIL DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1028 NM SFC HIGH SW OF THE AZORES. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE.

$$
WADDINGTON




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