[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200510
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD
LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO ASSOCIATED ANY
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

..THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 3N21W 00N33W 3N46W 2N51W.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF LINE
FROM 6N15W TO INLAND OVER SIERRA LEONE AFRICA NEAR 8N12W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE SW COAST OF AFRICA TO
JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 2W-7W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W-59W AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE GULF TO
THE N GULF COAST WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE E US. A JET STREAM WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 90 TO 100 KT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 26N WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC.
THIS SW TO W UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEING GENERATED INLAND OVER MEXICO INTO
THE W GULF FROM N OF TAMPICO TO THE TEXAS BORDER W OF 96W AND
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM OFF CUBA TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS E OF 84W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ALONG 90W S OF 24N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
OF THE YUCATAN AND THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE GULF IS THE ABUNDANCE OF SMOKE THAT REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE LARGE NUMBER OF FIRES OVER MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN CENTERED
NEAR 16N69W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR IS N OF 14N
THUS LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. A MID LEVEL LOW IS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N81W AND COUPLED WITH EASTERLY UPPER FLOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS S OF
14N W OF 74W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SMOKE IS A CONCERN
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE FIRES OVER HONDURAS AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND NW ATLC WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH
THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS E CUBA NE TO BEYOND 32N53W. BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE E
ATLC N OF 12N BETWEEN 23W-50W WITH A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 31N40W TO 25N46W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
ATLC N OF 15N E OF 70W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED SW
OF THE AZORES NEAR 32N33W AND A WEAKER 1023 MB HIGH W OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 30N47W.

$$
WALLACE


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