[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201033
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD
LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO ASSOCIATED ANY
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

..THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N6W 8N14W 3N30W 6N42W 4N54W.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
14W-19W AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 11W-13W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR E OF 2W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA N OF 3N E OF 54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO THE SW COAST OF AFRICA
BETWEEN 5W-9W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 40W-45W.
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 32W-38W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
36W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE GULF TO
THE N GULF COAST WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE E US INTO THE NW ATLC. A JET STREAM WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF
90 TO 110 KT EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 27N WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA ACROSS NE FLORIDA
INTO THE W ATLC. THIS SW TO W UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEING GENERATED
INLAND OVER MEXICO INTO THE W GULF FROM N OF VERACRUZ TO THE
TEXAS BORDER W OF 95W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 91W S OF 24N GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER S MEXICO WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N E OF
VERACRUZ. OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE GULF IS THE
ABUNDANCE OF SMOKE THAT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE LARGE
NUMBER OF FIRES OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS COVERING THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W AND EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN
UPPER LOW COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 16N70W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR IS N OF 14N THUS LIMITING ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. A MID LEVEL LOW IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N82W
AND COUPLED WITH EASTERLY UPPER FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. SMOKE IS A CONCERN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO
THE FIRES OVER HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A SMALL
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN JAMAICA
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITHIN 60 NM OF 19.5N79.5W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND NW ATLC WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING N OF THE REGION. A JET
STREAM WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 90 TO 115 KT EXTENDS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO
NEAR 31N59W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 22N68W AND EXTENDING THE AXIS NE TO
BEYOND 32N52W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF
LINE FROM 29N76W TO BEYOND 32N64W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE E ATLC N OF 12N BETWEEN
23W-47W WITH A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N41W TO
26N45W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 70W
WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR
33N27W AND A WEAKER 1021 MB HIGH W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR
30N44W.

$$
WALLACE





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