[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LOW-AMPLITUDE TO THE WAVE WITH SOME CYCLONIC
TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 7N. SMALL BULGE OF MOISTURE IS
EVIDENT ON THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 40W-45W. MOST LIKELY ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 67W S OF 13N
MOVING W 10 KT. MUCH OF THE WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL
VENEZUELA...WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO TRACK FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WAVE MAY BE ENHANCING CONVECTION W OF THE
AXIS OVER W VENEZUELA.

..THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 5N20W 3N30W 4N40W 4N45W AND
INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3N52W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150-180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 13W-21W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN THE
PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W. ALSO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 47W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDS
FROM N FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N87W IN THE CENTRAL GULF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE E GULF.
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 23N88W INLAND ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. A WEAK 1012 MB HIGH IS BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED
NEAR 26N92W KEEPING SURFACE WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE GULF W OF
88W. ALOFT...STRONG SW FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTENING THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SE OF A LINE FROM THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO N FLORIDA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE N GULF WATERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS
MOISTURE FROM THIS TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND PARTS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAVE CONTINUED OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND
A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 9N76W.
THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO SPREAD OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE GREATER ANTILLES AND
THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE WINDS VEER SE OVER THE NW WATERS
IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER MOST OF THE BASIN.
THIS UPPER FEATURE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND AN OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT LIES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND N
FLORIDA EXTENDS NEWD OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE W ATLC. THIS
FEATURE IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY N OF 27N AND WEST OF 70W. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N31W DOMINATES THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A WEAK TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 31N42W TO 24N50W.
THERE IS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
NEAR THE NORTHERN END. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW ENVELOPING THE
S BAHAMAS...THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE NE CARIBBEAN. PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER W
AFRICA IS PRODUCING A SWATH OF MODERATE TO STRONG NELY WINDS
NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST BETWEEN THE CANARY AND THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE SCALE RIDGE LIES OVER MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC ANCHORED ON A HIGH NEAR 20N63W. THIS
BROAD SYSTEM IS PROVIDING DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA W OF 50W. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WITH AXIS ALONG 32N31W
20N40W 9N50W EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E
ATLC E OF 50W.

$$
HUFFMAN




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