[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111030
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE SSMI
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-7N BETWEEN 43W-50W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N24W 3N35W 4N45W THEN INLAND
OVER NE BRAZIL NEAR 3N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 14W-33W AND
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 33W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND EXTENDS FROM ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF IS CURRENTLY BANKING SOME
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE N GULF COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING
INTO THE NE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS
INLAND OVER THE SE US. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST
BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE N GULF LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE GULF AND EXIT ON TUE.
THE SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS INLAND OVER N ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
WITH A NARROWER BAND ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA TO E
TEXAS. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 74W. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC DIPS INTO THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND CREATING A SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH W TO OVER N NICARAGUA. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. STRONG SURFACE WINDS ARE PRODUCING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH LIGHT UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF A LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W TO NICARAGUA
NEAR 12N84W. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR
W ATLC TO NEAR 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 55W-75W AND A SHORTWAVE
THAT EXTENDS ALONG 61W TO 20N. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE REGION ACROSS BERMUDA ALONG 31N70W
TO INLAND OVER THE E US NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER.
CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N
FROM 60W-77W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO
25N54W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 30W WITH AN
NARROW UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER TROUGHS. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS PRODUCING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE AN
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF
LINE FROM 28N51W TO 26N63W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXTENDS
FORM 32N29W SW TO 23N43W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ENCOMPASSES THE ATLC E OF 65W AND IS ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1021 MB
HIGH NEAR 28N42W A ND 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 29N26W.
THE AREA S OF 25N E OF 50W AND THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 50W COVERED
BY FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS.

$$
WALLACE





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