[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER AND THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS CLEARLY
SHOWS THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-6N BETWEEN 43W-46W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N21W 3N33W 4N44W THEN INLAND
OVER NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WITHIN 125 NM N OF THE
ITCZ AXIS FROM 40W-51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 14W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND EXTENDS FROM ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC. THIS IS
DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO THE W GULF BUT
ONLY IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE GULF IS CURRENTLY BANKING SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE N GULF
COAST WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL
CHANGE AS A FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST WITH THE WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE N AND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NW GULF LATER THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
GULF AND EXIT ON TUE. CURRENTLY THE SEVERE WEATHER IS OVER
ARKANSAS AND N MISSISSIPPI MOVING INTO N ALABAMA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 72W. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC DIPS INTO THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND CREATING A SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH W TO OVER NICARAGUA. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. STRONG SURFACE WINDS IS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH LIGHT UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 77W-82W.
OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR
W ATLC TO NEAR 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 60W-75W AND A SHORTWAVE
THAT EXTENDS ALONG 63W TO PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE E ATLC E OF 35W WITH AN NARROW UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO
UPPER TROUGHS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PRODUCING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 26N64W TO 28N53W. THE
SURFACE IS DOMINATED BY A RIDGE THAT ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE ATLC
BASIN E OF 80W ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 29N43W AND
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS.

$$
WALLACE




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net