[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111807
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 9N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 48W AND 49W. THIS WAVE MAY
REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY.

...THE ITCZ...

7N11W 5N20W 3N30W 3N40W 3N47W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
2N53W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 8N
BETWEEN 14W AND 15W...FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W...FROM
4N TO 5N BETWEEN 22W AND 24W...AND FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 30W AND
32W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 2S BETWEEN 20W AND 26W...AND FROM 5N TO 7N
BETWEEN 37W AND 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS CONNECTED TO A SOUTHERN INDIANA/
NORTHERN KENTUCKY CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS PROVIDING
THE SUPPORT FOR THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA ALONG 30N BETWEEN
89W AND 90W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N95W...
TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N97W...THROUGH LAREDO TEXAS...
CURVING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO FAR WEST
TEXAS. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 25N97W 26N90W
29N80W. THE FORECAST FOR THIS FRONT IS FOR IT TO EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO JUST WEST
OF GUATEMALA TO 21N102W IN MEXICO...NORTHWARD BEYOND 32N104W
IN FAR WEST TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MEXICO
RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF A LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA/NORTHEASTERN
COSTA RICA BORDER. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 77W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EAST OF 77W DUE TO A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH...THAT
PASSES THROUGH 22N56W TO 16N64W 12N78W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN WATERS
OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 11N WEST OF 80W...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 24N64W IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 30N70W BEYOND 32N76W. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 29N80W 24N64W 24N56W 30N46W. THE
COMPARATIVELY GREATEST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING
NORTH OF 30N WEST OF 74W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE 29N80W 30N46W LINE. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 32N27W29N33W 24N40W 22N45W. A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH NEAR 28N24W. A 1022 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N41W IS TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N9W
TO 22N27W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOLLOWS THIS TROUGH TO THE
WEST...THROUGH 32N34W TO 26N37W TO 15N44W.

$$
MT


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