[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W/43W FROM 1N-8N MOVING W AT ABOUT 15-20
KT. PRESENT LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN AND BASED PRIMARILY ON
CONTINUITY DUE TO LACK OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC
OBSERVATIONS. AS OF 08Z...MOISTURE FLUX ON THE MIMIC TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE IS LIKELY ALONG
44W/45W. LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W ALONG THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 30W-37W TO 2N44W THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N51W. A LARGE
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM 5N-8N E OF 15W. SIMILAR CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM NORTH...50 NM SOUTH...OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 46W AND INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MODERATE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SFC RIDGE COVERS THE GULF THIS
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAVERSED THE REGION EARLIER THIS
WEEK HAS MOVED ACROSS FLORIDA. THE ONLY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
IN THE STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA E OF 81W. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS IS REACHING THE FAR
NW GULF...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS MOSTLY
CLEAR UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT THROUGH THUR AS LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS CONTINUE TO COVER THE CARIBBEAN
USHERING IN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION N OF
13N. A 1010 MB LOW OVER COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING WIDELY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN PANAMA AND COLOMBIA S
OF 12N. ALOFT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
IS LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 09Z...A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 31N78W AND
EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND INTO THE STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA
NEAR 24N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY S OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...OTHERWISE THE FRONT IS
MOSTLY DRY. SW WINDS 15-20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFT W TO NW
10-15 KT W OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
IS GENERATING A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG 22N75W 26N72W TO 30N70W AND BEYOND THE
DISCUSSION AREA. FAIR WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EAST ATLC DUE TO A BROAD SFC RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN. THE RIDGE
IS ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N50W.
ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC
BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 16N27W AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE
INTERACTION OF THESE TWO UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES MAY BE INFLUENCING
THE TROPICAL WAVE SIGNATURE ALONG 42W/43W. SEE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

$$
WADDINGTON





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