[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W FROM 2N-9N MOVING W AT 15 KT. MINOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...MAINLY BEHIND THE
AXIS FROM 4N-6N. AS OF 02Z...MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT EARLIER ESTIMATES OF FORWARD MOTION MAY
HAVE BEEN TOO SLOW. MOISTURE FLUX INDICATES THE WAVE ALONG 42W
AT 02Z.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 1N30W 2N40W INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 50W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST FROM 7N-10N E
OF 14W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM N OF THE AXIS...60 NM S OF THE AXIS...BETWEEN 16W-21W.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
AXIS BETWEEN 22W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER FLORIDA JUST CLIPS THE EASTERN GULF NEAR
FT MYERS AND EXTENDS TO 26N83W. THE FRONT IS DRY IN NATURE AND
IS MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT...WITH LIGHT NWLY WIND BEHIND THE
FRONT E OF 86W. MODERATE S TO SE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SFC RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SAT WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION N OF 14N. PATCHY
CLOUDS...REMNANTS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED
SHOWERS...REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. ALOFT...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE REGION N OF 12N IS KEEPING CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB SFC LOW OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST. AS OF 03Z...THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N79W AND
EXTENDS SSW OVER THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA COAST
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY IS MOSTLY DRY
AND IS MARKED BY MODERATE S-SW WINDS SHIFTING NW 10 KT BEHIND
THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST... A CLUSTER OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS N OF 29N BETWEEN 75W-77W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
SUPPORTING A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR
23N74W ALONG 27N72W AND BEYOND THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 31N70W.
A BROAD SFC RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC...PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN.

$$
WADDINGTON


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