[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37W FROM 3N-10N MOVING W AT 10 KT.  MINOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE AS LARGE BUBBLE OF
AFRICAN DUST FOLLOWS BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING TO COAST
OF W AFRICA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 07N11W TO 01N30W TO EQUATOR AT 44W...
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 1S50W.  DECREASING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ AXIS FROM 13W-20W AND WITHIN 45 NM FROM
AXIS FROM 20W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W INTO
NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N85W.  NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT AS AIR MASS REMAINS EXTREMELY DRY UNDER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS ENTIRE GULF.  MODERATE NE WINDS N
OF FRONT ARE THE ONLY DIFFERENCE FROM REST OF BASIN THAT IS
UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SE FLOW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWATH OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO SE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA FROM E PAC
RIDING 75-8- KT JET STREAM.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF
30N FROM 85W-95W.

COLD FRONT MOVES E OF GULF WITHIN NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG COASTAL WATERS N OF 28N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS OVER CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ONLY
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ISOLATED TO E OF 65W AS A
VERY DRY AIR MASS SITS OVER REGIONS.  ONLY CONVECTION NOTED IS
DRIVEN BY OROGRAPHIC AND DAYTIME HEATING OVER ISLANDS AND ALONG
COAST OF VENEZUELA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONE CENTER
OVER COSTA RICA CONTROLS FLOE OVER WESTERN HALF OF CARIBBEAN
WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PROVIDE CYCLONIC TURNING OVER
EASTERN HALF.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LOW PRESSURE 1011 MB JUST N OF AREA HAS COLD FRONT EXTEND SW
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.  NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT AS AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY.  A 1021 MB HIGH PRES OVER
WESTERN  ATLANTIC NEAR 30N63W PRODUCING FAIR SKIES ACROSS
BASIN.  SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N39W TO
23N55W.  ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH.  HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER 1021 MB OVER E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N35W.  SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM CENTER TO 20N45W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER W ATLANTIC N OF 20N FROM
40W-80W.  LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTER OVER E ATLANTIC NEAR 16N28W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW N OF 5N AND E OF 40W.  EXPECT SURFACE TROUGH
TO DRIFT E DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
WALLY BARNES



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