[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051721
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 10 KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE ITCZ FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN
32W-39W.  AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS TRAILING THE TROPICAL WAVE
TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N30W 1N40W TO THE EQUATOR
NEAR 44W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 1W-4W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM
3S-4N BETWEEN 13W-20W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4S-1N BETWEEN 37W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W TO THE NE GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 28N85W.  NO PRECIPITATION REMAINS ON THE FRONT.
10-15 KT NELY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT SELY WINDS.  ELSEWHERE...CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
27N-29N BETWEEN 95W-98W...AND FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 93W-97W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 93W.  A BAND OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE
N GULF N OF 24N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E INTO THE ATLANTIC IN 24
HOURS WITH NO PRECIPITATION.  ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION
OVER THE TEXAS COAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA.  AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA MAINLY OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N...ALONG THE COASTS OF HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA N OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-80W...AND INLAND OVER
BELIZE...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W.  THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A
PATCH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 13N
AND E OF 70W.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1014 MB LOW IS N OF THE AREA OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA
NEAR 33N79W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO N FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W.
NO PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE FRONT.  A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N66W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N40W TO 22N56W.  NO
PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE TROUGH.  A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 27N26W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE
HIGH TO 20N45W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-80W.  A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 17N32W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 5N AND E OF 40W.  EXPECT...THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE E FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA/HUFFMAN






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