[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF 7N ALONG 35W WAS MOVED A BIT MORE TO THE
WEST IN ORDER TO AGREE MORE WITH SATELLITE DATA/SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND CIMSS MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
3N TO 5N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. THE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 33W AND
36W MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE WAVE THAN THE REST OF IT BETWEEN
30W AND 40W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W TO 3N20W 1N33W...TO THE EQUATOR NEAR
41W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S51W. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 13W
AND 19W...FROM 1S TO 2S BETWEEN 17W AND 18W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 6N EAST OF 50W...AND
SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 93W. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS LAGGING
BEHIND ITS DEEP LAYER SUPPORT TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS MORE ALONG
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA NEAR 31N82W INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N85W AND 28N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 28N90W TO 27N96W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM
27N96W TO 28N100W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 27.5N100W...ABOUT 20 NM WEST OF NUEVO LAREDO IN MEXICO.
A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS THE LENGTH OF FLORIDA IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 93W...FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN ABOUT 200 TO 240 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AT LEAST TO WEST
OF JAMAICA. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES
FROM JAMAICA EASTWARD. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N56W
TO 13N66W. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N50W TO 16N62W. CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W MOVING
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PRECIPITATION
THAT IS ALTERNATELY DEVELOPING AND DISSIPATING IN EL SALVADOR IS
AT THE SOUTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT STARTS IN MEXICO
AND ENDS UP IN CENTRAL AMERICA. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
WEAKENING WITH TIME...IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA NORTH OF 8N
BETWEEN 70W AND PANAMA ARE IN AN AREA OF POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYER
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST
OF 32N30W 20N45W 10N55W. A FEW TROUGHS ARE MOVING THROUGH THIS
PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT NOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND TROUGH
RUNS FROM A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 31N47W TO 21N56W TO 13N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SECOND
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N51W DROPPING TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IN THIS BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 29N44W TO 22N57W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 42W AND 43W.
A TROUGH MORE TO THE EAST PASSES THROUGH 33N30W TO 30N34W 27N40W
20N50W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N62W. BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THROUGH 32N30W 25N40W 18N50W 10N59W. SOME OF THE DEEP LAYER
CYCLONIC FLOW IS BROKEN UP BY THE SURFACE 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 29N67W...AND THE ACCOMPANYING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO
THE WEST OF THE 32N41W 22N57W SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE
IS EAST OF THE 33N30W 16N62W TROUGH...FROM 17N42W TO 25N29W
TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N19W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AROUND A 10N26W 18N24W BEYOND 32N24W
RIDGE.

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net