[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF 7N ALONG 31W/32W MAY HAVE TO BE MOVED
TO THE WEST FOR THE 05/0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS BASED ON
CIMSS MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN
34W AND 35W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W TO 2N25W 3N30W 1N34W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR
38W...STAYING ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 38W AND 45W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S51W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 11W AND 14W...AND FROM
1S TO 2S BETWEEN 15W AND 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 5N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS SHIFTED TO THE
EAST ALONG 93W. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ENTIRE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS LAGGING BEHIND ITS DEEP LAYER
SUPPORT TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS MORE ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST
AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
29N88W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N88W TO 27N94W AND
SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 27N99W. THE PART OF THE FRONT IN SOUTH TEXAS
MAY BE A BIT OF A WARM FRONT. LET US SEE IF THAT PART CONTINUES
MOVING NORTHWARD WITH TIME. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS THE LENGTH OF
FLORIDA IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
COVERS MEXICO NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 100W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNDER THE RIDGE FROM 26N TO 32N
BETWEEN 98W AND 103W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 93W...FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN ABOUT 200 TO 240 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AT LEAST TO WEST
OF JAMAICA. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES
FROM JAMAICA EASTWARD. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N61W
TO 12N69W. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 18N57W TO 16N62W. A FEW CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR...
AND IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA...AT THE SOUTHERN END OF
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT STARTS IN MEXICO AND ENDS IN SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W...SOME WEAKENING
WITH TIME...IN AN AREA OF POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH ALONG 76W/77W FROM 20N
BEYOND 32N SUPPORTS THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT.
A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS THE LENGTH OF FLORIDA IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH STARTS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N50W TO 21N61W TO 12N69W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N43W TO 23N50W AND 16N62W. ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WIND
FLOW IS AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N69W.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS EAST OF THE 32N43W 16N62W TROUGH...FROM
13N44W TO 21N34W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N27W
BEYOND 32N20W. HIGH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LOWER CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
14N60W 24N42W BEYOND 32N32W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS AROUND A 10N26W 18N24W BEYOND 32N24W RIDGE.

$$
MT


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