[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE 18Z SFC MAP...SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND THE TROPICAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT...MIMIC-TPW...FROM
CIMSS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN
COAST A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO IS CURRENTLY ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF
7N MOVING WWD 10-15 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 26W AND 35W. THE GFS MODELS HAS MOISTURE
FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WWD REACHING 36W/37W IN ABOUT 24
HOURS.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N30W 1N34W EQ47W INTO NE
BRAZIL. BESIDES THE ACTIVITY MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR
2N14W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQUATOR TO
4N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE DEEP
SOUTH. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT OVER
THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. 10-15 KT NELY WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT E
TO SE WINDS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COURTESY OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED ON A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. ALOFT...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG
90W. SWLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE ARE
ADVECTING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ANOTHER BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC ACROSS N MEXICO...TEXAS AND THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE GULF. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A
TROUGH OVER THE FAR SE GULF MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
IN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS NEAR GUADELOUPE IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE THOSE ISLANDS BUT PARTICULARLY
N OF MARTINIQUE. THIS CLOUDINESS IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MID/UPPER SWLY FLOW. SHALLOW MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS SEEN MOVING WWD ACROSS THE
BASIN MAINLY SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ALOFT...AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A BAND
OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS IS AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE ABC ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OFFSHORE VENEZUELA.
SWLY WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ARE ALSO
HELPING TO INDUCE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF
GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
SEEN OVER CUBA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT. TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE BASIN CONTINUE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT
AND ASCAT PASSES SHOWING ELY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N70W PRODUCING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANT OF AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING SW FROM
A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 37N43W TO NEAR GUADELOUPE IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE THE CARIBBEAN SECTION. A SFC
RIDGE EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE E ATLC FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO
NEAR 16N50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN
COVERS THE FORECAST AREA. A LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA
NEAR 32N54W THEN CONTINUES SW ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 29N54W. WV IMAGERY AND CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IN THE TROPICS W OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N29W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NEWD
BEYOND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS.

$$
GR





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