[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W FROM 1N-8N MOVING W AT ABOUT 20 KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
LOCATED N OF THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 44W-47W IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 3N20W EQ30W 1N40W 2N46W INTO
NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-4N BETWEEN 8W-11W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN
15W-18W. ALSO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 13W-17W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 21W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 90W. 10-15 KT
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE W GULF W OF 90W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE AND MOVE INTO THE NW GULF COAST THIS
EVENING. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST DUE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WED EVENING. THE GULF E OF 90W REMAINS
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPING
DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA TO CENTRAL CUBA PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE  AND DRY
AIR TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 77W. THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW VENEZUELA TO E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
A BROAD AREA OF DRY AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA E
OF 77W AND N OF 14N. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG N
VENEZUELA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA AND WINDWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N75W JUST N OF
THE AREA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO NEAR
30N75W AND SW THROUGH GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. NO PRECIPITATION
REMAINS WITH THIS FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N70W TO
24N75W AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE
TROUGH. LARGE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 12N-32N BETWEEN 35W-64W. TAIL END
OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N30W AND
EXTENDS TO 29N34W.  THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING
WNW AND EXIT THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED W OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS A LARGE AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH WHICH
EXTENDS FROM THE W AFRICAN COAST TO NEAR 50W BETWEEN 5N AND 20N.

$$
HUFFMAN


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