[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011055
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

6N9W 2N20W 2N30W 2N42W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 50W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S52W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 13W AND
16W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 19W AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND OTHER POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF
10N15W 7N30W 7N40W 6N53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BY
LOOKING AT THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE U.S.A. GULF COAST
STATES FROM LOUISIANA TO GEORGIA. A SHORTWAVE MIDDLE LEVEL
TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. PROBABLY MOSTLY JUST MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. A MIDDLE LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN WEST TEXAS...ACROSS THE TEXAS BIG
BEND...INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH RUNS
FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO 20N100W IN MEXICO...BARELY ACROSS
THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE
SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 28N86W IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF 70W. THE INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SAME HIGH CLOUDS TO BE THINNER AND NOT
OBSCURING THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AS MUCH AS THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MIGHT LEAD YOU TO BELIEVE. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 81W
AND 85W. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION HAS
MAINTAINED ITSELF IN SOME FORM DURING THE LAST 2 TO 3 DAYS AS
IT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N59W 18N66W
18N72W...STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO
ANTIGUA/BARBUDA...TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...TO
HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 17N57W TO 18N64W.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 23N70W TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR
21N75W. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW APPEARS TO BE FORMING NEAR
22N70W JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ARE FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...FROM THE EASTERN U.S.A. THAT WAS
SUPPORTING WHAT USED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT FROM
YESTERDAY...NOW IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N62W 27N64W 21N70W. THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N60W TO 23N70W TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N75W.
THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM THE END OF THE FRONT
TO NORTHERN BELIZE IS NOT APPARENT ANY MORE. AN EAST CENTRAL-
TO-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THROUGH 35N35W TO 32N29W 28N27W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N32W 30N32W 23N40W 19N50W 17N60W 18N64W IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES
A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N62W THAT IS IN BETWEEN
THE 32N32W 18N64W TROUGH AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD
FRONT. A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18N37W.

$$
MT





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