[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 2N20W 2N40W... CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 48W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN
11W-17W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN
18W-25W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-3N
BETWEEN 39W-41W...AND FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 47W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
36N73W PRODUCING 15-20 KT SELY RETURN OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE GULF.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.
A PATCH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE
NOTED HOWEVER OVER S TEXAS.  EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
INLAND OVER LOUISIANA DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 76W-78W.  A LOOSE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADEWINDS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SEA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A MOSTLY FLAT
RIDGE IS PRODUCING MOSTLY SW TO W UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
AREA.  SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
COVERS THE SEA BETWEEN 68W-88W.  EXPECT THE TAIL END OF AN OLD
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
36N73W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE W ATLANTIC.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N56W TO 28N60W TO THE SRN BAHAMAS NEAR
21N71W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.  A
1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 23N60W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N31W TO 24N42W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.  ANOTHER 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
20N34W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
ATLANTIC FROM 10N-32N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND W AFRICA.  EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO FROM 20-24N BETWEEN 64W-70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA


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