[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

5N9W 2N14W 1N27W 3N40W 2N45W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 50W...
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 13W AND
18W...FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 26W AND 28W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N
BETWEEN 33W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND OTHER
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N15W 7N30W
7N41W 6N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE
MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W IN
PROBABLY MOSTLY JUST MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A MIDDLE LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN WEST TEXAS...ACROSS THE TEXAS BIG
BEND...INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH RUNS
FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO 20N100W IN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
31N78W TO 27N91W TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF 70W. THE INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SAME HIGH CLOUDS TO BE THINNER AND NOT
OBSCURING THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AS MUCH. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN
80W AND 84W. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION HAS
MAINTAINED ITSELF IN SOME FORM DURING THE LAST 2 TO 3 DAYS AS
IT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N60W 18N67W
19N71W...STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
TO ANTIGUA/BARBUDA...TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...
TO HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 17N60W 18N64W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 23N73W IN THE BAHAMAS/MAYAGUANA
PASSAGE...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO NORTHERN BELIZE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN U.S.A. THAT WAS
SUPPORTING WHAT USED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT FROM
YESTERDAY NOW IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 29N67W AND 26N70W. THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N61W 30N63W 24N70W TO 23N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 23N73W IN THE BAHAMAS/MAYAGUANA PASSAGE...ACROSS
CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO NORTHERN BELIZE. AN EAST CENTRAL-TO-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH REMAINS. THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REPRESENTATION IS A TROUGH THROUGH 35N35W TO 32N29W
28N27W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N36W 25N40W 19N50W 17N60W
18N64W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES
A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N60W THAT IS IN BETWEEN
THE 30N36W 18N64W TROUGH AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD
FRONT/TROUGH.

$$
MT




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