[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310458
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 2N17W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
33W TO 3S43W. A SURFACE TROUGH FORMS A SOUTHERN ITCZ S OF THE
EQUATOR. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM N
OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 30W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
34W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS MEXICO
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND THE GULF W OF 90W. A SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ENHANCING
HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NW GULF N OF
29N TO JUST INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS BETWEEN VERMILION
BAY TO HOUSTON. UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E GULF EXTENDING INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH A COLD FRONT AT 31/0300 UTC MOVING SSW
ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND TAMPA THEN NW OVER
PENSACOLA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BEING BRIDGED BY THE FRONT ABOVE
RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE W GULF BANKING LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS BUT NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY INDICATED. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS
CLEAR TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NW CARIBBEAN IS UNDER NW UPPER FLOW WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA AS NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE. THE EXCEPTION REMAINS AFTERNOON
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE GENERATED
OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA HAVE MOVED S INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 18N71W TO 21N82W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 55W WITH A SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING S ALONG THE US E COAST. AT 31/0300
UTC...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N54W TO
29N66W WHERE TI PULLS UP STATIONARY TO 32N77W...CONTINUING AS A
WARM FRONT TO A WEAK 1024 MB LOW NEAR 31N79W AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THAT LOW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR MELBOURNE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA TO 32N79W. ZONAL WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A WEAK UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

$$
WALLACE




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