[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 302333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. A SURFACE TROUGH FORMS A
SOUTHERN ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 2S19W ALONG 4S25W TO 5S31W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 23W-34W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF THE ITCZ FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 37W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF.
MODERATE SELY RETURN FLOW COVER THE GULF AND IS ADDING LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW TO AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME NW GULF MOVING NNE NEAR 20 KT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT
AND MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE GULF THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES UP TO 25 KT CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN
USHERING IN PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS LIMITING ANY VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS. A LINE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
HAS EMERGED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTION IS SPILLING INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER
THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF CUBA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE
GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 31N60W AND EXTENDS WESTWARD
ALONG 29N66W TO 30N72W WHERE IS BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 31N78W
TO THE FLORIDA COAST JUST SOUTH OF ST AUGUSTINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS INTERSECTED BY A TROUGH NEAR 31N79W. THE TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 26N80W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
LIGHTING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THIS INTERSECTION N OF 28N BETWEEN 77W AND THE E COAST OF
FLORIDA. A LINE OF SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED OFF THE SE
COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN 25N-28N W OF 78W. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE W ATLC FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN
63W-69W AND TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN
72W-76W. THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1030 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 35N28W. BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE IS TRANSPORTING BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD TROUGH COVERS THE ATLC W
OF 54W ENHANCING THE SURFACE FEATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.

$$
WADDINGTON







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