[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311026
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N4W 2N16W 1N40W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 46W TO 1S50W. A SURFACE TROUGH FORMS A SOUTHERN
ITCZ S OF THE EQUATOR. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 29W-41W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N TO S OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 41W-48W WITH SMALL CLUSTERS WITHIN 50 NM OF
THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 10W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS MEXICO
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND THE GULF W OF 90W. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE SE US AND THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC DIPPING S
INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT MOVING SSW EXTENDS FROM A 1021
MB LOW JUST OFF THE THE E COAST OF FLORIDA ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA S OF MELBOURNE TO S OF TAMPA THEN NW TO THE
FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT
TO OVER FLORIDA BUT NO SHOWERS ARE INDICATED. A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF N OF 21N E OF 94W AND IS BEING
BRIDGED BY THE FRONT ABOVE RESULTING IN SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE
W GULF BANKING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO AND TEXAS BUT NO SHOWER ACTIVITY INDICATED. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNDER NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE. THE EXCEPTION IS THE AREA DOMINATED BY THE UPPER TROUGH
WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE
GENERATED N OF 16N TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA BETWEEN 71W-79W
INCLUDING JAMAICA AND N OF 20N TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN
79W-82W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO
THE W ATLC TO 55W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
REGION NEAR 32N52W EXTENDING W TO 28N64W. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING S ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE N
BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1021 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA
JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA S
OF MELBOURNE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF A LINE FROM FROM OVER S/CENTRAL FLORIA W
OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N79W TO INLAND OVER
FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK UPPER LOW
JUST N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
ENTIRE ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.

$$
WALLACE



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