[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151135
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
25W THEN ALONG 2S30W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM OFF THE COAST OF
W AFRICA FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 13W-16W...AND FROM 2S-3N BETWEEN
23W-30W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF
BRAZIL FROM 1S-4S BETWEEN 30W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 993 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 34N96W
PRODUCING 15-20 KT SLY SURFACE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH FOG ARE OVER THE N GULF FROM
TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 28N MOVING N.  FAIR WEATHER
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 90W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
N FLORIDA TO S TEXAS IN 24 HOURS WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN INLAND
OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 72W-75W.  PATCHES OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA ...S OF
JAMAICA...AND E CUBA.  SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N64W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NW TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL.  CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER COLOMBIA AND
THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  EXPECT SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE BERMUDA NEAR 31N56W.  A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N37W AND EXTENDS
SW TO 25N44W 22N54W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
27N-31N BETWEEN 37W-40W.  A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 35N21W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS W OF 60W.  A
TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
30W-40W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 30W.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE QUICKLY E DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




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