[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
25W THEN ALONG 2S30W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 21W-23W.
WIDESPREAD CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 21W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 992 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WHILE A 1021
MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N57W...RESULTING IN 15-20
KT SLY SURFACE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO.  AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE NE GULF THAT EXTENDED FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO S FLORIDA HAS RECENTLY DISSIPATED.  FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF N
OF 25N AND W OF 90W.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF
AND FLORIDA E OF 90W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF
EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM S GEORGIA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO E
TEXAS IN 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 72W-74W.  PATCHES
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA
...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA.  SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N64W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NW TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL.  CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER COLOMBIA AND
THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  EXPECT SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE BERMUDA NEAR 32N57W.  A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N38W AND EXTENDS
SW TO 25N45W 24N55W.  A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
33N24W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS W OF 60W.  A TROUGH IS
N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-40W.
A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 30W.  EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO MOVE QUICKLY E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA



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