[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 3N13W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 33W THEN ALONG 2S36W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 4N
TO 7N BETWEEN 14W AND 19W...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 4N24W
2N30W LINE...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4S BETWEEN 34W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WITH SPEEDS OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS COVER THE
ENTIRE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE GULF AND IS STRONGEST FROM 23N TO 27N.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE GULF. A COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AN UNUSUAL
'UNDULAR BORE' IS LOCATED OVER THE NW GULF AND IS MOVING SE
ABOUT 25 KNOTS. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. THE SUBSIDENCE NOTED
ABOVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A
60 KNOT JET STREAM ORIGINATING ALONG THE PACIFIC GUATEMALA COAST
EXTENDS NE ACROSS BELIZE TO 20N84W ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N80W. THE ONLY CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUE ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. A WEAK
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES ALONG 76W N OF 25N AND
IS MOVING E ABOUT 30 KNOTS. BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
COVERS THE AREA N OF ABOUT 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 75W. THE RIDGE IS
CAPPED BY A JET THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE N CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO
28N70W TO 29N58W AND THEN DIVES SE TO NEAR 20N45W. SATELLITE
CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS...TO 110 KNOTS...
ARE LOCATED BETWEEN 55W AND 73W. A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE E CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH THE
AXIS LOCATED ALONG 41W N OF 17N. CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED ABOUT
15 DEGREES E OF THE AXIS AND 10 DEGREES W OF THE AXIS. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N35W TO
24N41W TO 22N50W. OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT LIES E OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL MAXIMUM WIND BAND
IS LOCATED FROM NEAR 5N40W TO 10N30W TO THE AFRICAN COAST AT
14N. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COVER THE AREA N
OF ABOUT 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IS FORECAST
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

$$
CAB



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