[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 282316
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 6N17W 3N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
45 NM OF 4N FROM 36W-39W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 36W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE GULF THIS EVENING
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER S GEORGIA WITH RETURN FLOW OVER
THE W GULF. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S MEXICO/E PACIFIC
OVER MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
COVERING THE GULF W OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS IS ADVECTING
SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW GULF AND WITH VERY DRY
STABLE AIR COVERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...NO SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS FOUND IN THE GULF. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
GULF TUE NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS S INTO THE
CARIBBEAN N OF 14N FROM 63W-83W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W ACROSS
JAMAICA TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W TO E GUATEMALA.
THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME VERY DRY
STABLE AIR SO NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SCATTERED COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO 21N. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND CROSS PUERTO RICO LATE TUE. THE
REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUSLY BOUNDARY MARKED BY OVERCAST LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM THE
ABC ISLANDS NEAR 12N68W THROUGH THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
18N64W INTO THE W ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN W OF 57W
TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE REGION NEAR 32N59W EXTENDING S ALONG 25N62W THEN SW INTO THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH
SIMILAR ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 66W-69W
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT COVERS
THE AREA TO 78W. A WEAKENING FRONT IS JUST TO THE E EXTENDING
FROM A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 29N55W TO NEAR 24N59W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED DEEP IN THE TROPICS WITH
THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 50W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N
OF 15N E OF 40W WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION
NEAR 31N35W. A COLD FRONT GENERATED BY THIS SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE
E ATLC NEAR 32N37W EXTENDING S ALONG 29N39W THEN WESTWARD ALONG
28N42W 31N52W CONNECTING THE 1014 MB LOW NEAR 29N55W. THIS FRONT
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BUT THE DRY AIR AT
THE SURFACE IS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

$$
WALLACE

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